Pavel Mozgunov

Dr Pavel Mozgunov

(he/him/his)
Principal investigator

MRC Biostatistics Unit

About Dr Pavel Mozgunov

I am a Group Leader at the MRC Biostatistics Unit, working on the development and implementation of adaptive and Bayesian designs in clinical trials. 

Currently, I actively work on the following topics:

Dose-Finding Trials

  • L Kovačević, W Chen, H Barnett, T Jaki, P Mozgunov (2025). Bayesian model averaging for partial ordering continual reassessment methods, Biostatistics, 26(1), kxaf035
  • L Daniells , T Jaki, A Dayimu, N Demiris, B Bristi, S Symeonides, & P Mozgunov (2025). Seamless monotherapy-combination phase I dose-escalation model-based design. Clinical Trials, 22(4), 430-441

Basket Trials 

  • L Daniells, P Mozgunov, H Barnett, A Bedding, and T Jaki (2025). Incorporating historic information to further improve power when conducting Bayesian information borrowing in basket trials. Biostatistics, Biostatistics 26 (1), kxaf016
  • L Daniells, P Mozgunov, H Barnett, A Bedding, and T Jaki (2025). How to add baskets to an ongoing basket trial with information borrowing. Statistical Methods in Medical Research, Epub, 2025.

Platform Trials 

  • P Greenstreet, T Jaki, A Bedding, and P Mozgunov (2025). Design of platform trials with a change in the control treatment arm. Biometrics, 81 (2), ujaf073
  • P Greenstreet, T Jaki, A Bedding, C Harbron, and P Mozgunov (2024) A multi-arm multi-stage platform design that allows preplanned addition of arms while still controlling the family-wise error. Statistics in Medicine, 43(19):3613–3632, 2024

Biomarker Trials 

  • A Serra, J Geronimi, S Guilleminot, H Hadjur, M-K Riviere, G Saint-Hilary, and P Mozgunov (2025) A novel approach to assess the predictiveness of a continuous biomarker in early phases of drug development. Statistics in Medicine, 44 (5), e70026
  • A Serra, G Saint-Hilary, S Guilleminot, J Geronimi, and P Mozgunov (2025) Adaptive Biomarker‐Based Design for Early Phase Clinical Trials, Statistics in Medicine 44 (23-24), e70275

I am collaborating with >10 clinical trial units around the UK and have led the statistical design of over 20 trials. I have designed trials in oncology, psychological, cardiovascular, neurodivergent, infectious diseases as well as diabetes, stroke and rheumatology.

I also consult on a number of pharmaceutical and biotech companies on the development of novel adaptive designs and support their implementations in practice. My contributions in the dose-finding domain has resulted in shaping a regulatory guidance for dose optimisation. 

Selected Grants

To date, I have been an applicant on 12 successful grant including the personal 5-year NIHR Advanced Fellowship (2020-2025). All of these total to £14,296k of external funding including over £2mil for which I am responsible for. Selected grants are listed below.

  • PI: NIHR (2020 – 2025). Advanced Fellow, Bringing Innovative Early Phase Trials Methods to Practice. Role: development of novel statistical methods, support of CTUs with trials, outreach;
  • Co-I: CRUK CDD (2022 – 2026). Phase I/IIa trial of HTL0039732, as mono and in combo in solid tumours. Role: development of dose-finding design and its implementation
  • Co-I: Rosetree (2025 – 2030) Treating behaviours in syndromes assoc with frontotemporal lobar degeneration. Role: development of basket design and its implementation
  • Co-I: BHF (2024 – 2028) Azacytidine Treatment Effect on hypertrophic Cardiomyopathy. Role: development of dose-finding design and its implementation.
  • Co-I: IMI (2020 – 2026) U4TB: Development of new treatment regimens for TB; Role: development of innovative designs for tuberculosis

Selected Professional Activities

  • 2022  –  : Panel Member for the Medical Research Council, Developmental Pathway Funding Scheme
  • 2022 – : Founder and Director of Internship Programme, Biostatistics Unit, University of Cambridge
  • 2023: Panel Member for the French Cancer Institute funding panel
  • 2024 – 2025: Steering Committee Member for NIHR Development Schemes
  • 2025  –  : Panel Member for the NIHR Pre-doctoral Award
  • 2025 –  : Lead for Section Committee of NIHR Statistics Group: Early Phase Clinical Trials

Recordings of talks at my NIHR Fellowship dissemination workshop held in June 2025 are available here: https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLbvdNT0i2SCy7tHWaFqmjqNzTMLfVohDM

 

Publications

Showing 1 to 10 of 22 publications

Conference

Randomised Phase II study of acalabrutinib in combination with R-CHOP treatment for diffuse large B-cell lymphoma confirms safety and unimpaired treatment delivery

Authors: L Stanton, G Saunders, S Barrans, J Caddy, K McLaughlin, P McKay, A Zhelyazkova, G Collins, C Fox, J Wilson, A Morgan-Fox, J Raftery, J Richardson-Abraham, O Seymour, K Mansell, T Mell, M Van Hoppe, A Serra, G Griffiths, V Warbey, V Radhakrishnan, P Mozgunov, S Barrington, C Burton, P Johnson, A Davies

Published:

Journal: Blood

DOI: 10.1182/blood-2025-5459

Conference

948P Cancer Research UK first-in-human (FIH) phase I/IIa trial of the prostaglandin E2 (PGE2) receptor 4 (EP4) antagonist HTL0039732 (HTL) as monotherapy and in combination with immunotherapy in patients with advanced solid tumours

Authors: B Basu, N Cook, RH Jones, DH Palmer, C leung, BY Aktas, RC Dawson, A Dayimu, P Mozgunov, K Heinzmann, S Svetlik, H Cartwright, D Spencer-Briggs, GW Halbert, AJ Brown, N Swain, G Scarfe, E Adam, SN Symeonides, D Sarker

Journal: Annals of Oncology

DOI: 10.1016/j.annonc.2025.08.1517